For decades, the public debate on climate change was presented as a scientific controversy. Was the planet really warming? Were humans responsible? Today we know that the oil companies knew the answers long before most citizens did.

What the oil companies knew in 1968

In 1968, scientists Elmer Robinson and R.C. Robbins of the Stanford Research Institute delivered a report to the American Petroleum Institute, the main lobby of the US oil industry. They described carbon dioxide as the only air pollutant proven to be of global importance, and warned that if CO2 levels continued to rise, temperatures could increase, with potentially severe consequences. The report largely confirmed what the scientific community already knew from earlier studies.

Exxon’s accurate predictions

In the following decades, Exxon ran its own climate research. A study published in the journal Science in 2023, led by Geoffrey Supran with researchers from Harvard University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, analysed Exxon’s projections from 1977 to 2003. It found that they were at least as accurate as those of independent academics and governments, predicting roughly 0.2°C of warming per decade.

At the same time, the company and the wider industry publicly emphasised uncertainty and doubt about climate science, delaying action for years.

The decades lost because oil companies knew and stayed silent

Imagine if, in the 1970s or 1980s, this knowledge had been shared openly and acted upon. The transition to clean energy could have been gradual and far less costly. Instead, emissions kept rising, the bill for disasters grew, and we now face the need to change faster, under greater pressure.

From anger to action

Knowing this history should not leave us only angry. It should make us more vigilant and more active:

• Be sceptical of campaigns that sell doubt when the science is clear.
• Reduce your own dependence on fossil fuels wherever you can: transport, heating, consumption.
• Support transparency laws and policies that make polluters pay for the damage they cause.
• Choose banks and pension funds that do not finance new fossil fuel expansion.

The oil companies knew, and the truth was known. The question now is whether we will repeat the same mistake by staying passive, or whether we will finally act on what we know.

Sources: Inside Climate News, CO2’s Role in Global Warming Has Been on the Oil Industry’s Radar Since the 1960s; NPR, Exxon’s climate predictions were accurate decades ago (2023).